With so much debate about carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, it’s easy to get lost in the detail of dealing with climate change. How can we avert a climate crisis?
I arrived at the Crawford School this morning and was invited to a roundtable on climate change led by no less than Nick Stern, head of the Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change and author of A Blueprint for a Safer Planet.
This century the World faces two colossal challenges: eradicating poverty and tackling climate change.
The goal for the next century is to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change by limiting the rise in temperature to 2 degrees and this will require a halving global emissions by 2050. With around 9 billion people likely in the world in 2050, having well below 20 billion tonnes of emissions requires no more than 2 tonnes per person. Currently Europe is around 10-12 tonnes and the USA well over 20. There will not be many people below average emissions so there cannot be many above average.
The goal for the next decade is to implement practical steps to put the World on a much lower carbon path to reach the 2050 target. Whilst the global economic crisis has distracted attention and the Copenhagen conference on climate change failed to meet expectations, Nick was realistically optimistic about what could be achieved.
Nick Stern highlighted four key messages:
Build the political will for immediate action: Nick discussed the political journey from the UN talks at Bali to Copenhagen to Cancun later this year. Despite the disappointment at Copenhagen, he said that there is a growing political will and practical action on climate change. And there is a growing political realisation that slow progress in the US cannot be a barrier to broader action – we’re all in this together and all countries can and should take action.
Celebrate the successes: Whilst a lot is said about the disappointments of Copenhagen, much less is said about the successes. Copenhagen did deliver agreement on a 2 degree target for temperatures increase; it did deliver agreement on $100 billion p.a. climate finance for development countries by 2020; and it did deliver agreement on a way forward for further discussions. Similarly, whilst a lot is said about China’s new coal power station a week, much less is said about China’s dramatic successes on renewables, especially wind power. We need to talk more about the success stories.
Look for opportunities: The World is poised for a new industrial revolution that will transform the foundations of economic growth. The late Chris Freeman was one of the pioneers of understanding such transformations – for example in his excellent book As Time Goes By looks at the move from the industrial revolution to the information revolution. Nick argued that effective communication of the opportunities of climate change mitigation are an important part of building the political will.
Don’t get left behind: Nick also discussed the downside for those countries that fail to keep up in the ‘green race’. Not only will their long-run competitiveness suffer, but they could also potentially face carbon-based tariffs from cleaner countries.
Nick Stern concluded by saying that ‘realistic optimism is the only way forward’. And this reminded me of a Robert Kennedy quote.
There are those that look at things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?
It was great to hear Nick Stern’s talk on the big picture of managing climate change and how to create progress and prosperity – he’s more than an economist, he’s a visionary leader.
